test(node): match transfer replies by id, not by arrival order

Three defects in the probe, found while extending it to cover the per-member
hot-swap. The third is the one worth keeping.

`transfer_state` is the reply to an open, the acknowledgement of a close, and
the push that carries a grant minutes later. Reading "the next one" therefore
returns somebody else's answer as soon as more than one transfer is in play —
the probe took two stale `closed` acks as the replies to two opens and reported
a working cap as broken. That is exactly the defect `req_id` exists for in this
protocol, committed inside the tool written to check it. Replies are matched on
`tr` now.

The other two: the `transfers show` parser counted the pool summary line as a
lease once that command grew a per-group section (a probe that reads a
human-facing format signs up for this), and the per-member check began with a
member who already held several leases, which measures nothing. It waits for
the operator's own view to go quiet first — waited for, not slept through.

Both probes written today reproduced a bug already recorded in CLAUDE.md: this
one, and yesterday's timer with no strong reference. A tool that verifies the
code is not exempt from the code's rules.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01HCGdheDLxGReuKHga3BtST

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